Apple does seem to have the upperhand atm; the iPhone is not only state-of-the-art soft- and hardware, it also has the by far strongest brand in the smartphone industry and is regarded as the #1 gadget among the average young consumer – presumably closely followed by the iPad.
This is perhaps the reason why Apple (read: SJ) claims for absolute control over the entire eco system for “native applications” through mainly proprietary tools and frameworks and one single supply channel, the App Store, while at the same time encouraging the development of smart, “thick” web applications, using WebKit features: They feel very safe and comfy in the the sweet spot of cool consumer hyperbole – they’ve found their niche, so now they don’t *think* they need to comply to any standards they’re not in control of themselves. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

However sure of their niche, Apple’s super-tight control over the development- and release-process of iPhone and iPad applications does have one major drawback: It’s lack of support for developing domain-specific, proprietary applications, *not* aimed at the average consumer but rather at certain specialized tasks and trades. It is hard to imagine serious investments in business- or science-software *stictly* made for a smartphone that still has (much) less than 25 % of the entire mobile market. Sure, I know the figure is higher when you look at smartphones only, but iPhone users are typically first movers, and the other manufacturers are all slowly but steadily growing their number of smartphone models that will eventually replace more and more of the simpler, “conventional” among average users.

Therefore it’s more than likely, that there will be a need for an open, standardized, probably Linux based mobile platform and ecosystem for both consumer and especially non-consumer applications other than the strictly controlled consumer-gadget iPhone and stronger/faster/more_secure than smart, mobile web-applications. Google Android *could* be this platform if Google finds the right combination of control and openness; Meego, started by Intel and Nokia could be another player or perhaps a mobile derivative of one of the greater Linux distributions, f.ex. Ubuntu.
Even if it ends up with several platforms; if they’re open and based on Linux, making applications cross platform should be a none-issue.

So I guess you are both right to a certain extend. Apple will (at least for some time) be a major player on the hip, consumer-aimed smartphone scene but their restrictive “business-decisions” will fence the iPhone off from some uses. Oh, and the price and restrictive bundles of the iPhone, at least for the moment, disqualifies it for a lot of people in Europe and even more in Asia. This holds a market open for other, alternative platforms; the competition and recent history taken into account, however, we’re bound to see more standardization and “open sourcing” on the platform market, manufacturers putting their main efforts into hardware, special OS-branding and -widgets and web-based services, f.ex. all-you-can-eat music and tv.

If Windows Mobile 7 will be a dark horse in this game only time can tell – I think not, but my guess is, that the market will be largely fragented, with both iPhone, Symbian and some StandardizedOpenSourcePlatforms, Symbian probably only for a shorter period. In other words: Apple will keep their niche while a general consolidation and standardization of a few alternative, different but often compatible platforms is happening.

But why is Apple *really* doing this? I’m convinced, their concern for the quality of iPhone and iPad apps is just half the story; they’re in for total control, firstly over their mobile platforms but secondly also over the entire Mac platform. Adobe is a long time supporter of not only the Mac OS but the whole Apple _idea_, also when things weren’t all honky dory and a move as bold as the one Apple has made towards them suggest that Apple doesn’t need Adobe and their software anymore – did someone say “PhotoShop killer”?
The Mac OS is a wonderful Unix derivative but it’s not the only and it’s a matter of taste if it’s the best and honestly, I’m quite disappointed with the current attitude of Apple and Jobbs; unless they somehow undo their latest moves and open a bit up, it’s quite likely that my current MBP will be my last and eventually replaced with a Linux loaded laptop with a vibrant, open ecosystem.

#K

There is some business sense in this. If a portable platform comes along (for example with CS5 and thus Flash) this may actually become a intresting development platform at least for some developers. I won’t go into details of “Flash good or bad” but having a portable platform does result in applications which are written for this portable platform which by definition can only support a common subset of features. This in turn would result in Apple loosing it’s competitive edge (where’s the point if identical applications are available for Android, Symbian, iPhone)? It’s a _business_ decision and a valid one.

You wrote on portable platforms: ” A great initiative for everybody, both developers, clients, technology and world peace.”. I don’t concur.
It’s convenient for some developers. However on the bottom line it provides clients with less-than-optimal applications. It also impedes innovation.
Flash sucks in providing a decent cross platform experience even on today’s desktop systems (win, linux, mac). Why should it be “better” on the phones? Why should it be more stable? Less of a resource hog?

SJ: “cross-platform tools produce substandard applications” – which is IMHO true.

Please read on in Jean Lois Gassee’s “The Adobe Apple Flame War”
http://www.mondaynote.com/2010/04/11/the-adobe-apple-flame-war/